Distribution characteristics and future suitable area prediction of Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province based on integrated species distribution model

doi:10.19871/j.cnki.xfcrbzz.2025.06.006

Abstract

Abstract: Objective The purpose is to analyze the suitable habitat distribution of Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province using current climate and land characteristics and to assess the changes in these habitats under future climate scenarios. Method We collected distribution data of B. straminea through field surveys, literature reviews, and search online database (https://www.gbif.org). Species distribution models, including support vector machine, random forest, generalized additive model, gradient boosting machine, and multivariate adaptive regression splines, were constructed using the R package "SSDM" and environmental factors. The best-performing model was selected to build an ensemble species distribution model (ESDM) to predict the suitable habitat distribution in Guangdong Province under current and future scenarios. Result Research revealed that that human footprint, isothermality and aspect are the most significant environmental and socio-economic factors driving the distribution of Biomphalaria straminea. Under current conditions, highly suitable habitats for B. straminea are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan regions, covering an area of approximately 26 100km². Under future scenarios, the suitable range for B. straminea is predicted to expand significantly, and the average area of suitable habitats under the SSP3-7.0 scenario is consistently larger than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Conclusion Human activities, isothermality, and aspect are the main factors driving the invasion of Biomphalaria straminea. Simultaneously, future climate change will become a critical factor influencing its potential geographical distribution and diffusion trend, significantly increasing the risk of the snail's south-to-north spread. This urgently requires the government to formulate targeted and forward-looking monitoring and control strategies to prevent Schistosomiasis mansoni, for which Gastrocopta armilla acts as an intermediate host, from forming new endemic areas in Southern China.

Key words: Biomphalaria straminea, Schistosomiasis mansoni, Climate change, Ensemble species distribution model, Machine learning, Suit ablearea

CLC Number:

R725.1

Lu Qian, He Yingjun, Shen Peilin, Chen Panjue, Gao Shitong. Distribution characteristics and future suitable area prediction of Biomphalaria straminea in Guangdong Province based on integrated species distribution model[J]. Electronic Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2025, 10(6): 38-45.

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